Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, FAST TRACK
Mapping the global geographic potential of Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19)
Centro Regional de Investigación en Salud Pública, Instituto Nacional de Salud
The World are presently experiencing the most serious known outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2020. COVID-19) is an outbreak detected in Wuhan City, China.We use ecological niche models to predict the potential distribution of the dispersion of COVID-19 in the World. We use 140 records of infected people as an approximation for the construction of ecological niche models using a recent methodology to have a better interpretation of the results. The study addresses urgent knowledge gaps regarding (1) the potential geographic scope of the current COVID-19epidemic, and (2) the global potential for spread of COVID-19. Our results demonstrate the dispersion of COVID-19 in the world, and we have very little uncertainty in certain areas of the world. The results can be extrapolated and can also serve as an alert for countries where there are no cases of the disease.