Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, VOLUME 119 | 2024
Research Articles
Climate change-induced degradation of expert range maps drawn for kissing bugs (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) and long-standing current and future sampling gaps across the Americas
1University of Southern California, Department of Biological Sciences, Marine and Environmental Biology Section, Los Angeles, CA, United States
2Georgetown University, Department of Biology, Washington, DC, United States
3Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores, La Plata, Argentina
DOI: 10.1590/0074-02760230100
309 views
190 downloads
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND Kissing bugs are the vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease (CD). Despite their epidemiological relevance, kissing bug species are under sampled in terms of their diversity and it is unclear what biases exist in available kissing bug data. Under climate change, range maps for kissing bugs may become less accurate as species shift their ranges to track climatic tolerance.
OBJECTIVES Quantify inventory completeness in available kissing bug data. Assess how well range maps are at conveying information about current distributions and potential future distributions subject to shift under climate change. Intersect forecasted changes in kissing bug distributions with contemporary sampling gaps to identify regions for future sampling of the group. Identify whether a phylogenetic signal is present in expert range knowledge as more closely related species may be similarly well or lesser understood.
METHODS We used species distribution models (SDM), specifically constructed from Bayesian additive regression trees, with Bioclim variables, to forecast kissing bug distributions into 2100 and intersect these with current sampling gaps to identify priority regions for sampling. Expert range maps were assessed by the agreement between the expert map and SDM generated occurrence probability. We used classical hypothesis testing methods as well as tests of phylogenetic signal to meet our objectives.
FINDINGS Expert range maps vary in their quality of depicting current kissing bug distributions. Most expert range maps decline in their ability to convey information about kissing bug occurrence over time, especially in under sampled areas. We found limited evidence for a phylogenetic signal in expert range map performance.
MAIN CONCLUSIONS Expert range maps are not a perfect account of species distributions and may degrade in their ability to accurately convey distribution knowledge under future climates. We identify regions where future sampling of kissing bugs will be crucial for completing biodiversity inventories.
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Financial support: VS is supported by a United States National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (# 1937959), the Department of Biology at Georgetown University; and a David H Smith Postdoctoral Conservation Research Fellowship while conducting this work.
+ Corresponding author: vshirey@usc.edu 
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3589-9699
Received 16 June 2023
Accepted 23 July 2024
HOW TO CITE
Shirey V, Rabinovich J. Climate change-induced degradation of expert range maps drawn for kissing bugs (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) and long-standing current and future sampling gaps across the Americas. Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. 2024; 119: e230100.
